Myanmar's reform miracle stalls
Euphoria that accompanied early post-junta accomplishments fades as
leaders realise how great an uphill climb the country faces.
Writer: Larry Jagan
The East Asia Summit in Nay Pyi Taw last week was meant to be the
country's crowning glory, and evidence that the government had successfully
introduced political and economic reforms.
While many Myanmar government leaders admit that there is still much to
be done, especially in education, health and social welfare, many of the world
and regional leaders in Myanmar for the summit must have been dismayed to see the
reality — there are few tangible results from the political and economic reform
process started nearly four years ago, when Thein Sein became president and
formed a quasi-civilian administration.
"Even though there may be some moves that seem to be backsliding,
in my view they are the reality checks we have to face on the bumpy road to
democracy," the president's chief political advisor, Ko Ko Hlaing told me
recently. "No reform in the world has been flawless and
smooth. Compared to other transitions — like Indonesia and Korea in the
early years of their reform — ours is much better and peaceful."
But the reality is that Myanmar's political and economic reform process
has run aground. Thein Sein's government has been virtually impotent for
months, with little progress to show, despite the talk of the reform process
entering the third stage. In fact the rollout of new mobile telephone networks
has hit significant snags, the much-trumpeted peace process is beginning to
unravel, and foreign investment is stagnating.
The country's pro-democracy leader and head of the opposition National
League for Democracy (NLD), Aung San Suu Kyi, put it bluntly at a news
conference on the eve of the summit, when she warned the western powers,
including the United States, that they had been too optimistic and gullible in
believing Thein Sein was committed to the transition to democracy.
"If they really study the situation in this country they would know
that this reform process started stalling early last year," she said.
"In fact, I would like to challenge those who talk so much about the
reform process, [to point out] what significant reform steps have been taken
within the last 24 months."
There is no doubt that for more than a year now, the reform had indeed
stalled. Few concrete decisions are being made, and any economic progress that
may have been achieved in the first two years of the Thein Sein government has
petered out. Even the president's political advisers admit the reform process
has lost momentum.
"The third wave of reforms announced by the president earlier this
year is intended reboot the slowing reform process," said Ko Ko Hlaing.
"The government is trying to boost both public and private-sector support
for the reforms, having realised now that the government elites alone cannot
complete the whole transformation process on their own."
"Everything is stalled as ministers are having trouble making
decisions," admitted Zaw Oo, a presidential economic adviser.
"Although ministers are still powerful, they are now more answerable than
in the past to the president and the ministers in the president's office that
is overseeing them, and to parliament." This has left many ministers
nervous and indecisive, he added. They are now more reluctant to push their policy
ideas through.
"There is no such thing as a real reformer in the cabinet,"
said a senior media editor close to the government, on condition of anonymity.
This is a view endorsed by Ma Thida — a renowned writer, human rights activist,
editor, medical doctor and former political prisoner, whose pen name is Suragamika or Brave Traveller. "Myanmar is
still not yet in a transition period; the best that can be said is the
government is trying to reform," he said.
Amid the government inertia, the biggest problem is that the farmers and
the poor people in the urban areas have not reaped any benefits from the reform
process. "For them there has been no democracy dividend," said social
commentator Khine Win.
"The gap between the powerful and the powerless is extremely
wide; and it's growing wider all the time. The resources are concentrated in
the rulers' hands, with daily land grabs constantly exacerbating the
situation."
"We want democracy, we want freedom and we want a better
life," said taxi driver Win Lwin, who lives on the outskirts of Yangon.
"But since this government came to power, prices have risen — my rent has
doubled in the last twelve months, there is a greater shortage of electricity,
and work as a taxi driver is even harder, and I earn even less than before."
But this was almost inevitable, as the Thein Sein government were never
really committed to democratisation and economic liberalism. "Guided
democracy" was always the lasting mantra inherited from Than Shwe — the
former military leader who finally retired in January 2011 — when he handed
over power to the current quasi-civilian government.
They had only one main mission: to get Myanmar accepted by the
international community and to roll back sanctions. Having done that more
quickly than expected, they were then at a loss to know what to do next.
"There is no overall strategic plan, everything is done on an ad hoc
basis," said one of the many advisers to the president, who declined to be
identified.
There is no consistency within government on its development plan for
the future, or agreement on any immediate goals. For example, the head of the
newly reformed MIC, the energy minister Zayar Aung, told foreign investors and
Myanmar business analysts earlier this year that he would not entertain any joint
venture that was worth less than $300 million. Smaller schemes, he believes,
would not have a significant impact on the country before the end 2015 to help
boost the ruling party's popularity in the forthcoming elections.
While there is a strong construction boom, especially in Yangon, there
is no over all economic strategy. Efforts at privatisation have
stalled: "Official information and data on what has been privatised,
how and why it was done, and outcomes … are hard to come by," the
president's chief economic adviser, U Myint, said at a commerce ministry
seminar last month.
"I know more about what is going on between Brad Pitt and
[Angelina] Jolie than what is going on in our privatisation process," he
admitted.
Although the government claims economic liberalism is a central part of
its reform process, there is no tangible evidence of this, according to many
economic analysts.
"While it [the government] maybe a narrowly defined as
pro-business, it is not really committed to liberalising the market. There is a
lack of reforms in the pipeline; many crucial areas are not even being
considered; even the reforms being introduced — the exchange rate, foreign
investment and banking reform —have been a relative failure.
Foreign investment has slowed to a trickle, after the halcyon days of
the initial opening when Thein Sein came into office nearly four years ago,
because of government administrative failure, the campaign to change the
constitution and the forthcoming elections.
"In the lead-up to the elections, and in the jockeying and
positioning before it, economic reform in Myanmar has more or less come to a
halt," said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar specialist at Australia's Macquarie
University. "Worse, re-emergent protectionist elements connected to
Myanmar's 'cronies' have forced reform backward in some areas."
This is particularly the case in both the telecoms and banking sectors,
where brave attempts to open up to foreign investors and adopt international
standards were pared away by the interference of the nationalist business
interests, especially in parliament.
In the countryside things are even worse. "There is no agrarian
reform," said Turnell. "In fact farmers — who make up some 80% of the
workforce — are worse off. And for at least 70%, there is no prospect for any
improvement soon."
This government administrative inertia is in part the result of the
campaign to change the constitution — especially Provision 436 which gives the
military in parliament, where they have a compulsory quota of 25%, a virtual
veto over changes to the constitution, and 59F which effectively bars the
opposition leader being president. These, along with more than 200 other
sections, are being debated in parliament this month. But most analysts believe
the key changes are unlikely to be passed in parliament by the required
majority of 75%.
In the end there is little to commend the Thein Sein government's reform
process to the outside world, so desperate to them the benefit of the doubt.
"There is no rule of law; and the government still directly or
indirectly controls everything, including the media," said Bo Kyi,
who runs the leading association for political prisoners and returned to Yangon
recently after years in exile. Things are better, but they haven't really
changed that much, he mused. "There is some space, we can meet
people, but we cannot go beyond that."
Tags: Opinion
