To Hopeland and Back: The 31st trip (23-29 May 2017)
Everyman is my superior in some way
In that I learn from him.
(Ralph
Waldo Emerson (1803-1882)
This
time, as readers who keep track of the country will know, I was there for the
Union Peace Conference #3, according to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, or
the Union Peace Conference 21st Century Panglong (UPC 21CP) #2,
according to the government in office.
This
UPC#3 is a marked improvement from the previous two in that while the two were spent
in reading papers from each participant, this time the participants, for the
first time, were doing serious negotiations in order to push their counterparts
into acceptance.
Naturally,
lots of complaints have been made on how the conference was convened by both
sides meaning the government-military bloc and the Ethnic Armed Organization
(EAOs).
Reading
through the few pages here, I’m sure readers will find there’s plenty of room
for improvement during the coming months, so that the peace process doesn’t end
up on a garbage heap after UPC # 4 or, for those who prefer, UPC 21 CP#3.
Day One, Tuesday, 23 May 2017.
The inclusion of women in roles that enable them to have influence
increases by 35% the likelihood that peace agreements will last at least 15
years. The inclusion of civil society organizations, again as genuine
participants and not just bystanders, can reduce the risk of a return to armed
conflict by as much as 64%
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
Today,
with my son as my assistant, I fly from Chiangmai to Mingladon, and from
Mingladon to Naypyitaw. I have to wait for 4 hours before the transit, but
there's a booklet putting together several research papers produced by the Tai
Society for Historical Studies to keep me company. Later two friends arrive who
are to be my flight mates to Naypyitaw.
We
are given a room, #419, at the Thingaha, together with a separate minibus and
driver throughout our attendance. Actually, accommodations at the hotel are
also reserved for all top leaders of each EAO. However, leaders of the
Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), I learned, have
chosen to remain with their 20 + members of the delegation at the SEA game
village, where water and power are said to be unending problems for hundreds of
delegates.
In
the evening, we have a call from U Soe Thane, an old friend from U Thein Sein’s
days. A lot of things are said. But only one remains after he takes his leave:
Intimacy is very important. It brings trust which in
turn brings forth good results in the negotiations.
I
later meet a friend working for the government’s peace team, who urges EAOs “to
do something for her. She has been working hard for over a year, but hasn’t
made the first sale of the day yet.”
Less than half of the country’s ethnic armed organizations
are currently included in the NCA, which represents approximately only 20% of
their combined troop numbers, without the non-signatories, the potential of the
country’s political dialogue process to achieve a Union Accord will remain
limited.
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
Today
at the opening ceremony of the UPC 21CP, the stars are of course those from the
FPNCC, more commonly known as the Wa Alliance, who leave after the speeches.
(We hear later that they hold separate meetings with the government.)
State Counselor
There
shall be no pressure or coercion to force acceptance (of our demands).
·
NCA does not force one to yield its arms. Please
consult Chapter 1 of the NCA.
·
The Tatmadaw will
follow the NCA path based on its 6 principles
(1.
Genuine desire to make lasting peace
2. Commitment to peace agreements
3. Abstaining from taking unfair advantages
from peace agreements
4. Not to place burden on the local population
5. Strict adherence to existing laws
6. Cooperation in democratic reform process
based on the 2008 constitution, our main three causes and the essence of democracy
Note: Principles # 5 and # 6 are not accepted by the EAOs)
·
The peace
process must be as the Burmese saying goes: The squirrel must be able to
pace and the bee must be able to settle. We should not leave the
non-signatories behind. For those who cannot participate, we will need to
create space for them
·
Ethnic-based,
local-based and topic based national political dialogues (NDs) should be
encouraged to hold throughout the country. Hasty undertakings will not solve
problems.
The
morning session ends with group photo takings, followed by lunch.
The
afternoon session is held without the State Counselor and the Commander in
Chief. It is presided over by Dr Tin Myo Win who enigmatically quotes Einstein:
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we
created them.
Prepared
proposals on each dialogue topic are then read out:
·
Political Sector Lt-Gen (Ret) Khin Zaw Oo
·
Economics U Hla Maung Shwe
·
Social Sector U Naing Ngan Lin
·
Land and Natural Resources
Management Khun Myint Tun
·
Security Sector Maj Gen Soe Naing Oo
·
Conference rules Ta Hla Pe
Follows
the daily briefing among the signatory EAOs. Here are some of the excerpts:
·
According to the
rules, all proposals from stakeholders must be submitted to the Working
Committees (WCs). But we have heard that some proposals were directly presented
to the UPDJC (which is above WCs).
·
According to the
Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD), we are required to sign the agreements
reached at each conference as part of the Union Accord. But if we do that, then
it’ll be without the participation of non-signatories
·
In addition, RCSS
and ALP have yet to hold NDs. (Only Karen, Chin and PaO have held ethnic level
NDs. Other major ethnic peoples include Shan, Arakan/Rakhine, Kachin,
Karenni/Kayah, and Mon. None of them were able to hold NDs before the
conference.)
·
Some seem to be
holding the false impression that we are out for secession. Let us show them we
are not that hare-brained.
Day Three. Thursday, 25 May 2017
 |
Mr Miroslav Jenca
(Photo: UN)
|
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
The
second day of the conference starts with a one-hour meeting, 07:30-08:30, 8 EAO
top leaders with Mr Miroslav Jenca of Slovakia, UN Assistant Secretary General
for Political Affairs.
The
following is a summary of what are discussed there:
·
We have made
progress, but we need more time and effort. Many more EAOs not on board.
·
Pressure to agree
without going through proper process will not promote the cause of peace
·
UN
has been involved in Burma’s peace process before it even started: Calling for
a tripartite dialogue in 1994. Witness to the NCA signing in 2015. Setting up
UN special envoy office in the country to observe and assist in peace process.
·
The country,
being in a key geopolitical location, UN’s presence is needed. China, as a
rule, objects to western nations’ involvement in the country’s peace process.
But it is okay to UN involvement.
·
The presence of
UN special envoy came about through request by the EAOs and concurrence by the
government. The decision to discontinue its presence should be made only after
consulting the EAOs.
The
room for political dialogue at the MICC II is arranged this way:
a.
Sitting plan
b.
Speakers are
given 5 minutes each to comment on the 21 point proposal in the political
sector in the following order: Government –parliament, Tatmadaw, EAOs, and
political parties
U
Kyaw Tint Swe, who is the principal chair for the first day, and Gen Khin Zaw
Oo, who serves as one of the three facilitators, do their job well to keep the
proceedings in order. (Some participants, after hearing them admonishing the
military representatives, however, scoff them off as ‘acts’ to impress innocent
observers like the author.)
Here
are some of the extracts:
·
We don’t consider
secession as an option. But the word is offensive and should be rephrased
·
We don’t want
secession. We neither want non-secession. The Three Main causes should be more
than sufficient
·
The word “never
to secede” may be unintentionally damaging to the Three Main National Causes.
It goes against Panglong. It goes against what Gen Aung San had agreed.
·
The word “never
to secede” poses as obstruction to national unity.
The
day at the conference ends with 12 rounds of discussions. But it continues
further into the PPST daily briefing, 19:00-21:30.
Here
is one extract from the briefing:
·
In principle, we
can accept non-secession. But these words are unacceptable.
The
meeting puts off decision to the next evening.
 |
Sai Ai Pao,
chairperson for today,
gives opening remarks. (Photo:PI)
|
From global experience, higher rates of pace agreement
implementation is highly beneficial. On average, if comprehensive peace
agreements are negotiated and implemented at a rate of 75%, on average 80% of
non-signatories join the process within a year.
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
Today’s
morning session is a continuation of yesterday’s dialogue. Only one incident is
of note: after the SNLD representative again protests against the use of
‘non-secession’, a military representative stands up and said, “Then, I request
that all the 5 paragraphs under Right of Self Determination be removed from the
proposal.”
The
session decides to defer the decision to the UPDJC which meets in the afternoon
today and all day tomorrow, before the closing ceremony the day after.
The
PPST then hold an extended meeting, 13:30-22:00. After going through all the 5
papers, it is found that the key question is still how the EAOs can deal with
the ‘non secession clause’ which says:
No part of the territory constituted in the Union
shall ever secede from the Union.
The
decision is to allow the EAOs’ UPDJC members, led by Dr Lian Hmung Sakhong, to
negotiate for a clause which in essence may carry the same meaning, but in
different words that will elicit positive responses from all EAOs.
Day Five. Saturday, 27 May 2017
Faltering implementation cannot simply be blamed on a lack of political
will. International experience highlights that vagaries in text often cause
confusion or otherwise problematize the implementation phase.
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
Today
is supposed to be my day of rest, as the UPDJC is supposed to meet and
negotiate for the outcome which is to be announced tomorrow at the closing
ceremony.
All
morning I’m out at the Buddha Gaya replica outside the city, to see if I could
be persuaded to visit the real one in India. However, at the end of it, I
remain undecided about it.
On
my way back to the hotel, after a delicious Shan lunch at Mao Kham Noom
restaurant, I’m told to accompany the PPST leaders for a hitherto unplanned
meeting with the State Counselor.
 |
The EAOs
meeting, following the surprise meeting
with the State Counselor, 27 May 2017.
(Photo: PI)
|
SC:
So, what have you gentlemen got to
tell me?
PPST:
(Speechless, because they
think it is The Lady who has called this meeting)
U
Zaw Htay: Explains about the impasse between the EAOs and the government over
the non-secession clause
SC:
Okay, then. What have you got to say?
PPST:
First, the word ‘not to
secede’ is very uncivil. Technically, it’s not different from ‘to live together
forever’, but politically, it will create more problems.
Imagine
a man and a woman getting married. They will say to each other: I will take
care of you for the rest of my life, and such. They will never say “You shall
never divorce me,” because once it’s said, it will amount to the end of their
marriage, before it has even properly started.
Secondly,
if there is continued disagreement whether or not to use it, to give us time to
consult among each group, among the 8 EAOs and the people.
SC- I thought that you had already promised my
predecessor not to secede. You will also remember the Roman Catholic Christian
oath saying, “What God has joined together, no one shall put it asunder.”
PPST- At President Thein Sein’s time, the policy was
“apart from secession (and non-secession) everything is on the table”. The
issue ‘not to secede’ came up only this month.
Government- As the Right of Self Determination
comes together with the agreement ‘not to secede’ in a package, refusing it
will be amount to the removal of the Right of Self Determination
PPST- We have made progress this time under the State
Counselor’s leadership. Couldn’t we keep it as a ‘collection of opinions’ to be
discussed again later?
The
impasse continues. Then a new proposition is then offered for consideration:
Since the government and Tatmadaw want the promise
‘not to secede’ in exchange for the Right of Self Determination, could we put
it this way. “As long as the principles of Equality, Right of Self
Determination, Democracy and Federalism are honored, there shall be no
secession”?
To
this, the government and the military representatives think it is something to
think about and the meeting is adjourned. It is also announced that the
conference has another day extension, to be wound up on 29 May instead of 28
May.
 |
The Union Peace Dialogue
Joint Committee (UPDJC)
meeting of the second session of the Union
Peace
Conference - 21st century Panglong in Nay Pyi Taw on
28 May 2017. (Photo: Mizzima)
|
Of the 31 comprehensive peace agreements negotiated
globally since 1989, every additional 1 percent of implementation corresponded
to a 6% increase in peace duration. To use more tangible numbers, a peace
agreement that was implemented at 40% might last for 10 years. The same
agreement, if implemented at 80%, would on average prevent a return to armed
conflict for 25 years.
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
We
wait anxiously for the outcome of yesterday’s negotiation all morning. At
14:30, it comes:
·
Both the
government and the Tatmadaw have stuck to their guns on the question of
non-secession: There shall be no change of words
·
Both sides then
agreed to defer it to the next UPC.
The
PPST, or what is left of it, because Gen Mutu and Gen Moshay had left in the
morning, then consider the question: whether the points agreed should be signed
as ‘part of the Union Accord’ or as a ‘collection of opinions.’ The consensus
is to sign it as a “collection,” in order to consult afterward with all EAO
stakeholders, both NCA signatories and non-signatories.
I
return to the old capital in the evening, as my return ticket to Chiangmai has
been fixed for tomorrow. In so doing, I miss all the fun that follows.
Day Seven. Sunday, 29 May 2017
One average, when comprehensive peace agreements are fully implemented,
a country’s foreign investment doubles over a decade, while gross domestic
product increases by 5%. This translates to more employment opportunities and
improved livelihoods for people.
Can Myanmar’s peace process learn from international
experience? Frontier, 24 May 2017
My
check-in time is 11:30. So I visit a few friends. There are a few things that I
glean out of their discussions:
·
The
NCA, as well as the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD), must be reviewed, to
remove all the confusion and different interpretations.
·
As the government
and the Tatmadaw have joined hands, at least on the question of non-Burmans, if
not on the question of democracy, negotiations may be tougher from now on
·
The EAOs should
be better prepared for the next UPC
On
arrival in Chiangmai, I’m told by my young friend who comes to pick me up that
the State Counselor, during her closing speech this morning, had cordially
invited “all those organizations and individuals that are not yet participating
in this conference to join us in this historic endeavor” (Global New Light of
Myanmar)
It
is just as well, I agree. Because I know some of my friends who have been
involved in the peace process since 2011 are facing trouble renewing their visas.
As
I’m going through the news of the day in the evening, I get a call from a
friend in Burma, eager to discuss the results of the UPC 21 CP#2. I tell him I have
yet to read the signed document. To this he says, “There’s nothing special in
it, only commonly accepted maxims, equivalent to ‘The sun rises in the east and
sets in the west.’”
Maybe
he’s right. But I also remember the advice from another friend who used to be
active in the peace process during U Thein Sein’s time:
Take everything the other side is ready to give. Value it. Make use of
it. And continue to negotiate for those that are yet to be agreed.
He
also makes sense, doesn’t he?
Note: The journal gives
incomplete information, due to the fact that the author was not present at the
following sub-events:
·
Dialogues in
security, social, economic, and land and natural resources sectors which were
held in separate rooms
·
The UPDJC
meeting, 26-28 May 2017
·
The closing
ceremony of the UPC 21 CP#2
Tags: Opinion
